Kabul is on track to become the first city to run out of water. For many Kabul residents, the sound of water running from a tap has become a memory. Children in neighbourhoods throughout the capital of Afghanistan count precious droplets. Parents calculate how many days the stored water will last. Scarcity now dictates daily life: when to cook, when to wash, and when to hope that wells haven’t dried up.
This is not a tale of a secluded community battling aridity. Millions of people live in a big global city where the basic resource is running out. For years, the crisis has been developing covertly under the cover of war and political unrest. Now it has finally reached a tipping point that requires international attention.
International organizations have recently issued serious warnings that Kabul may become the first city to run out of water entirely. The ramifications go well beyond Afghanistan’s boundaries, prompting concerns about how cities throughout the world will adapt.
The Numbers Tell a Devastating Story
The figures are both startling and stunning. Kabul’s population has grown from less than one million to about seven million since 2001. The city has expanded sevenfold, turning a once-modest town into a megacity. But it lacks the infrastructure to handle such development. Two decades of conflict, reconstruction, and the current Taliban administration left little room for systematic urban planning or water management.
From 2021 to 2024, Afghanistan had a prolonged drought that further taxed the country’s already scarce water resources. Water resources experts say that Afghanistan’s ability to store or use much of its water is virtually nonexistent at the moment..
How Kabul Got Here?
A number of significant errors have come together to trigger the impending water disaster in Kabul rather than a single factor. International sanctions and frozen aid have further weakened Kabul’s already fragile infrastructure since the Taliban returned to power in 2021. Afghanistan needs $264 million for planned water and sanitation projects. So far, partners have received only $8.4 million, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).
In particular, the financial isolation has proven disastrous. Since the Taliban retook power in August 2021, foreign donors have blocked an additional $3 billion. This has left maintenance programs unfunded and forced officials to shelve critical infrastructure projects. The city needs significant investment to address its water crisis, and this economic constriction has happened at the exact moment.
The crisis has become even more complicated as a result of climate change. Afghanistan is especially susceptible to extreme weather occurrences since it is situated at the meeting point of several meteorological systems. According to development specialists, the nation has to invest more than 6% of its GDP to mitigate the risk of flooding. At the same time, the region is experiencing a rising drought, which has decreased the amount of water available.
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Water Becomes a Luxury
There is a human tragedy taking place in real time behind the numbers. Some Kabul households spend up to a third of their income on water, if they can afford it at all. Residents are becoming increasingly dependent on costly water delivery. The city’s poorest, many displaced by drought and violence, have almost no access to safe drinking water.
There are many waterborne illnesses since the accessible water is frequently contaminated. Afghanistan’s shortage problem is made worse by a public health catastrophe brought on by severely low water quality in 30 of the country’s 34 regions. Longer treks, greater expenses, and greater vulnerability have resulted from the issue for women and children, who have historically been responsible for gathering water.
International Paralysis and Local Innovation in Water Crisis
The challenge facing the international community is how to deal with a humanitarian disaster without endorsing Taliban authority. Afghanistan’s climate strategy projects that between 2021 and 2030, it would require $20.6 billion to finance emission reduction and climate adaptation projects. In August 2021, however, when the Taliban took control, donors stopped funding development projects.
Despite the challenges, Afghanistan has made some progress. Recent efforts to include Afghan delegates in international climate discussions have drawn support from Afghan climate scientists and activists, even those critical of the Taliban, who see it as a potential way to unlock frozen climate funds.
Local populations have not waited for global answers. Across Kabul, residents have formed water-sharing cooperatives, implemented rainwater harvesting systems, and adopted conservation measures. However, these grassroots efforts, while admirable, cannot address the scale of the crisis facing a city of seven million people.
The Regional and Global Stakes
If Kabul were to cease to exist as a city, the consequences would extend well beyond Afghanistan’s boundaries. A refugee catastrophe involving millions of people escaping a city without water may destabilize the whole area. The burden on Iran, Pakistan, and Central Asian nations, which now house millions of Afghan refugees, would be unparalleled.
A test case for how the international community responds to humanitarian crises brought on by climate change in politically isolated areas is also a problem. Under the existing sanctions regimes, the instruments of traditional development aid, long-term infrastructure investment, capacity building, and institutional support are mainly unavailable.
Kabul and Its Countdown to Day Zero
The window for action is fast shrinking as the anticipated “Day Zero,” when Kabul’s taps may run permanently dry, approaches in less than five years. There are solutions: better distribution networks, groundwater management, enhanced water storage, and regional collaboration, but putting them into practice would take international cooperation, financial resources, and political will that don’t appear to be available right now.
The water situation in Kabul is tragic, not because it cannot be resolved, but rather because it is becoming unavoidable. Kabul could be the first city to run out of water, but it won’t be the last as climate change speeds up and the world’s population grows. The global focus on preparing for future urban water crises often overshadows the urgent need to prevent seven million people in Afghanistan from starving.
